Democrats are growing concerned that President Joe Biden may be without the support of a key voting bloc next November as the Democratic Party continues to fall out of favor with a growing number of black voters. .
In the 2022 midterm elections, black voter turnout declined compared to previous midterm elections. In Philadelphia, for example, vote totals declined by an aggregate of 20 points in precincts where black residents make up 70% or more of the population. An analysis of the Census Bureau’s turnout survey, black voter turnout fell from 51.7% in 2018 to 42% in 2022. If this decline continues into 2024, particularly in battleground states that Biden narrowly won in 2020, it could be fatal to Biden's reelection campaign.
"I am absolutely concerned. Frankly, I am extremely concerned,” one elected Democrat told the Wall Street Journal. “This is a huge problem.”
A poll from the New York Times and Siena College found that 22% of black voters in six of the most important battleground states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — said they would vote for former President Donald Trump in next year's election and 71% would back Biden. This is a significant step up for Trump, who received 8% of black voters in 2020 and 6% in 2016, according to the Pew Research Center.