Democrats should be very afraid of Trump's powerful pitch to black voters

Trump has already developed his three-part pitch to black voters, which was reflected in his State of the Union. First, he's already gotten criminal justice reform done. Second, he will give you a choice of where your children go to school — even if you aren't wealthy. And third, he has brought measurable economic progress to minority communities.

Trump will never win a majority of the black vote. But he doesn't have to. If he follows through on his current strategy, he has a massive opportunity to win a greater share of it in 2020 than the 5% to 10% that Republicans have received since 2008. If Trump gets even 20% of the black vote in swing states such as Michigan, Florida, and Pennsylvania, then Democrats will simply have no path to victory. 

The first prong of this platform came through in Trump’s compelling Super Bowl advertisement, which highlighted the story of Alice Johnson. This grandmother was serving a life sentence for nonviolent drug crimes until Trump commuted her sentence. The commercial touted the president’s passage of the First Step Act, a bipartisan, landmark criminal justice reform bill that took the nation one step closer to a just prison system by focusing on rehabilitation and preventing recidivism.
Criminal justice reform disproportionately benefits black people such as Johnson. It polls extremely well among black voterstoo. Trump is wise to make this a key part of his pitch, which he echoed in his State of the Union address.

Trump is also rightfully touting record-low unemployment rates for blacks every chance he gets, including during his State of the Union address. The promising figures are a continuation of a longer-term trend, but there’s no doubt the president deserves some credit for the rising economic tide. 

As Democrats consider their leading options for president — Pete Buttigieg, Bernie Sanders, and other candidates who will struggle more than your average Hillary Clinton (let alone an Obama) to win black voters — they have every reason to worry.