What if in November enough black Americans voted for Donald Trump to re-elect him into the presidency?
This unlikely straw has been in the political winds recently because in three opinion polls—Emerson, Marist and Rasmussen—President Trump registered about 30% support among black voters.
Asked to respond by InsideSources.com, former Hillary Clinton adviser Joel Payne said: “I have a better chance of jumping center for the Celtics tonight than Donald Trump having 30% support in the African-American community.” He may get the call.
The reason this unlikely 30% number breaks the seals in Democratic heads is that for years it has been a rule of thumb in politics that if black support for Republicans ever reached 20% of the total vote, a Democratic presidential candidate would not be able to win, ever.
An enduring condescension of our politics is that the voting preferences of minorities, especially black Americans, are monolithic and unchanging. This is notably untrue of Hispanics, whose vote this time is up for grabs, and who are a substantial percentage of voters in Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, Texas and Florida.